Pierre Poilievre's Conservatives have opened up a sizeable lead over Justin Trudeau's Liberals and are ahead in every part of the country except Quebec.

The Conservative Party led by Pierre Poilievre leads Justin Trudeau’s Liberals by 9 points among decided voters, Pluriel found in our latest What Canadians Think Omnibus survey.

Top takeaways

  • Among decided voters, 37.9% would vote for the Conservatives, 29% would vote Liberal, and 20% would vote NDP.
  • In Quebec, the Liberals lead among decided voters with 37% while the Bloc trails with 30%.
  • The Conservatives and Liberals are neck-and-neck in Ontario, with 34% and 33% support of decided voters, respectively.
  • 22% of voters say they are still undecided.

Federal vote intention, excluding undecided voters

Federal vote intention by region, excluding undecided voters

Federal vote intention, including undecided voters

Survey methodology

This round of the What Canadians Think omnibus survey was conducted by Pluriel Research, using an online sample fielded September 7 – 8, 2023. The sample includes 1,001 respondents, and the final sample has been reweighted to account for remaining imbalances that differ from the Canadian adult population. The margin of error for an equivalently-sized probability sample is +/- 3% (19 times out of 20). Margins of error for subgroups of the sample would be larger commensurate with their share of the total adult population.

Full crosstabs are available by request. Please contact us if you would like to schedule a walkthrough.