Poilievre's Conservatives lead Trudeau's Liberals 39% to 25%. There is a mismatch between Canadians' relative optimism for their personal finances vs. the nation's economy as a whole, and these trends are apparent in how they rate Trudeau's performance as PM.

Federal vote intention

A national poll of 1,374 Canadians fielded by Pluriel Research on November 26, 2023 finds that Pierre Poilievre’s Conservatives maintain a significant lead (39%) over Justin Trudeau’s Liberals (25%), followed by Jagmeet Singh’s NDP (19%).

When undecided voters are included in the analysis, the Conservatives maintain their lead (31%), compared to the Liberals (19%) and the NDP’s (15%). 22% of Canadians report being undecided.

Approval of Prime Minister Trudeau

Prime Minister Justin Trudeau continues to suffer a substantial net disapproval at – 29 percentage points.

Only 6% of Canadians strongly approve of the job he is doing as Prime Minister.

The most striking finding from this month’s poll is the disconnect between Canadians’ optimism for their own personal finances vs. their optimism for Canada’s economy as a whole. The only subgroup of Canadians with a net-positive approval rating for Prime Minister Trudeau are those who are optimistic about Canada’s economy (net + 25 approval). However, the same cannot be said of those who are optimistic about their own personal finances (net – 10 disapproval).

Bridging that gap between personal optimism and optimism for the country may be a way for the Liberal government to begin to turn their electoral tides.

“Optimism gap” between Canadians’ views of the economy as a whole and their personal finances

45% of Canadians say they are pessimistic about Canada’s economy over the next three months, while 21% are optimistic.

These numbers stand in contrast to Canadians’ evaluations of their own personal financial prospects over the next three months, with only 26% believing they are likely to be worse off (51% expect their finances to stay the same, and 24% expect to be better off).

Realigning these beliefs in a positive direction will be key to reversing current federal electoral trends.

Methodological note

This survey, part of the What Canadians Think omnibus survey (one of Pluriel’s high-frequency data products) was conducted online on November 26, 2023, with a sample size of 1,374 adult (18+) Canadians, including an oversample in the province of Ontario. Respondents were recruited from a blend of online panel providers to maximize representativeness. Sample imbalances were minimized through the use of quota sampling on age, gender, and region. Sampling weights were applied to account for the Ontario oversample, and post-stratification survey weights were applied to correct for any remaining observable sample imbalance. The margin-of-error for an equivalently sized probability sample is +/- 2.6% (19 times out of 20). Margins-of-error for subgroups are larger commensurate with their share of the population. Reported percentages may not always add to 100 due to rounding. This survey was paid for by Pluriel.