Pluriel's November 2023 What Canadians Think omnibus survey was in the field on November 26th, the day of the Ontario Liberal Party's leadership vote. Here we provide a unique snapshot into Ontarians' views on the leadership race.

A new poll from Pluriel Research finds that, of all the Ontario Liberal leadership candidates, Ontarians have the most positive opinion of Bonnie Crombie (net + 22 pts) compared to the three other candidates: Nate Erskine-Smith (net + 1 pt), Ted Hsu (net +/- 0 pts), and Yasir Naqvi (net – 3 pts), all within the margin-of-error.

In a hypothetical election between an OLP led by Bonnie Crombie, a PC party led by Doug Ford, and an Ontario NDP led by Marit Stiles, the three parties are in a statistical tie. With all three other potential OLP leaders, the party trails the PCs and the ONDP.

The poll, paid for by Pluriel Research, has a sample size of 838 adult Ontarians. It was fielded online on November 26, 2023. The margin-of-error for an equivalently sized probability sample is +/- 3.4% (with .95 confidence).

Download the full report here (PDF).

Full crosstabs available here (Google sheets).

Awareness of Ontario Liberal Party leadership race

  • Nearly two-thirds of Ontarians are aware of the OLP leadership race (64%), though only 15% of Ontarians have been following it closely
  • Overall, Ontarians say the OLP leadership race has had little impact on their opinion of the party, with three-in-four (75%) saying it has not changed their opinion
  • Among those Ontarians who say they are likely to vote Liberal in the next provincial election, 25% have had their opinion of the party change for the better as a result of the leadership race

Crombie has highest positives among Ontarians and likely OLP voters, many still say they don’t know enough to decide

  • Among our full sample of Ontarians, Bonnie Crombie enjoys a clear public opinion advantage over the other OLP leadership candidates, with 38% saying they have a positive opinion of her (though nearly half of Ontarians say they do not know enough to give an opinion)
  • Crombie’s advantage persists among those who say they’ll vote Liberal in the next provincial election, with 65% saying they have a positive opinion of her

Provincial vote intention: Crombie-led OLP in statistical tie with Ford’s PCs and Stiles’s ONDP

  • We tested how the different OLP leadership candidates might fare in the next election against Premier Ford, ONDP leader Marit Stiles, and GPO leader Mike Schreiner
  • Bonnie Crombie is a clear favourite – her results make the hypothetical election a statistical toss-up between the Ford’s PCPO, Stiles’s ONDP, and an OLP led by Crombie
  • Nate Erskine-Smith, Ted Hsu, and Yasir Naqvi all get similar results: they trail Stiles’s ONDP by 8 to 9 points
  • A cautious note: across all these results, the “Undecided” category is equal or greater than the leader’s vote-share, giving the leaders lots of room to manoeuvre several years out from the next election

Methodological Note

This survey, part of the What Canadians Think omnibus survey (one of Pluriel’s high-frequency data products) was conducted on November 26, 2023, with a sample size of 838 adult (18+) residents of Ontario. Respondents were recruited from a blend of online panel providers to maximize representativeness. Sample imbalances were minimized through the use of quota sampling on age, gender, and region, and post-stratification survey weights were applied to correct for any remaining observable sample imbalance. The margin-of-error for an equivalently sized probability sample is +/- 3.4% (19 times out of 20). Margins-of-error for subgroups are larger commensurate with their share of the population. Reported percentages may not always add to 100 due to rounding. This survey was paid for by Pluriel.